The End of Moore’s Law?! (Shrinking The Transistor To 1nm)

The End of Moore’s Law?! (Shrinking The Transistor To 1nm)


Hi, thanks for tuning into Singularity Prosperity. This video is the second in a multi-part series discussing computing. In this video, we’ll be discussing modern computing – more specifically, Moore’s Law with the exponential growth of technology due to our ability to pack more and more transistors into integrated circuits and the potential death of Moore’s Law! In the previous video we discussed the evolution of the field of computing, from the pre-computer era to vacuum tubes, transistors and finally the integrated circuit. I highly recommend you check it out for some more background context into computing. One of the largest breakthroughs in electronics and computing was the integrated circuit, a way to put many transistors into a single chip instead of individually wiring them together. After Gordon Moore, one of the founders of Intel saw the doubling of transistors on integrated circuits, he extrapolated the data and made one of the greatest predictions in human history: “The number of transistors and resistors on a chip would double every 24 months”, in other words, computing power would double every 24 months at low cost. Integrated circuits are used in practically every device that requires a digital logic operation to be done, these operations can consist of converting analog signals to digital, amplifiers, computation oriented – the list can go on and on. As our world becomes more digitized, the amount of integrated circuits will only continue to increase. In fact, every year since the birth of the IC in 1958, more and more have been produced year in and year out, with for the first time ever in 2018, more than 1 trillion to be produced in just that year alone! The most astonishing part about this fact is that this number is only set to grow as sensors and computers become ever more ubiquitous and affordable. Looking at just one field in the broad scope of technology, the Internet of Things, connected devices are expected to nearly double from this year to 2020, reaching over 50 billion, with each one of those devices having tens, hundreds or even more ICs within them. Almost everything is on its way or has an IC in it from: airplanes, cars, speakers, blu-ray players, toys, door locks, lights and countless other technologies. The real power of ICs however and what has really shaped our world and fueled the growth of Moore’s Law is a use of ICs for computing. When we think of computers, the first component that often comes to mind is the microprocessor. A specialized integrated circuit that is made for computing. Microprocessors used to be just one IC, but as computers evolved and more complexity in design was needed, the central processing unit emerged. A CPU simply put is the part of the computer that executes instructions. It can be implemented using a single IC, multiple ICs, individually wired transistors or a room full of vacuum tubes and relays. A microprocessor is just a single chip implementation of the CPU, which is why the terms are often used synonymously. Other examples of where integrated circuits in modern computers are used is the RAM, DRAM, hard drives, solid-state drives, GPUs, the motherboard which is essentially many ICs with many functions and more – essentially there are tens of hundreds in typical computers, each with the specific tasks. As the number of transistors on integrated circuits has increased, has led to the ability for the production of components with more storage, speed, memory, etc than ever before at increasingly affordable prices. In 1971, the first commercial microprocessor, the Intel 4004 had a transistor count of 2,300, 8 years later in 1979 the Intel 8088 had 29000, 10 years later the Intel 800486 and nearly 1.2 million. Then in 1999 the Pentium 3 had 9.5 million and following that in 2000 the Pentium 4 had 42 million. Since the 2000s, the transistors on chips have been increasing at an increasingly fast rate. While this applies to microprocessors, similar trends have been followed in all integrated circuit applications. For example, as seen in the price of memory and storage over the years per gigabyte as the number of transistors has increased: [Music] The majority of people nowadays have a computer, whether it be a desktop, laptop or more commonly a smartphone. While the latest commercial desktop and laptop processors are using 14 nanometer transistor sizes, as of this year, the mobile industry has pushed forward with 10 nanometers. The Samsung S8 with its Exynos 8895, Qualcomms Snapdragon 835 and Apple’s iPhone X with its A11 Bionic chip, all feature a 10 nanometer transistor process. To put that number in perspective, 10 nanometers is one billionth of a meter: Point Zero Zero Zero Zero Zero Zero Zero Zero One meters (.000000001m), 20 Silicon atoms wide, you can fit about 10,000 along the width of an average human hair! When holding your new phone, you’re essentially holding 3 to 4 billion transistors! As seen here, transistor sizes have been decreasing exceedingly fast since 1971, but since the 14 to 16 nanometer range, things have slowed down quite a bit. One of the primary reasons this was due to was quantum effects. One of these effects is quantum tunneling, this caused because the distance between the source and drain of the transistor is so small that electrons jump across the barrier. So instead of staying in their intended logic gate, the electrons end up continuously flowing from one gate to the next, essentially making it impossible for the transistor to have an off state. Here is a conventional planar CMOS transistor. On top of a silicon substrate are two electrical terminals, the source and the drain, separated by an electrically controlled gate. When voltage is applied to the gate a conductive channel is formed and electrons flow from the source to the drain. When voltage is removed the current should completely cease, however, in modern transistors substantial leakage flows even when the gate is turned off. Unfortunately, this leakage current increases with every generation of transistors and represents a growing proportion of power consumption. To solve this, a radical redesign of transistor has taken the industry by storm, the FinFET. The FIN-shaped Field Effect Transistor, essentially takes a typical 2D planar transistor and reorients the gate vertically to make it 3D. This allows more gate control since now the gate of the transistor covers the top and sides, which therefore reduces the leakage induced by quantum tunneling. Each FinFET has three fins, with the fins being the source and drain of the transistor going through the gate. The FinFET also allows for less heat generation and power consumption, since one gate can essentially control three nodes, which correlates the longer battery life spans. FinFETs allowed the scaling of transistors from 16 nanometers to 10 nanometers, as exemplified by the mobile processors mentioned earlier and now other major semiconductor manufacturers, such as Intel are releasing their 10 nanometer desktop and laptop lines in 2018: with Cannon and Ice Lake. As a side note, Intel has been using FinFETs since their 22 nanometer Ivy Bridge architecture, referring to them as Tri-gate Transistors. FinFETs should allow scaling down to 7 nanometers with minimal leakage, with IBM successfully demonstrating a 7 nanometer node in 2015 and release expected by the 2019 to 2020 range. Unfortunately when scaling lower than 7 nanometers, quantum tunneling once again rears its head. The further miniaturization of transistors will open up the Internet of Things for everybody, with the ability to embed sensors into nearly anything. What’s more exciting to me personally is the applications of this miniaturization on microcontrollers like the Raspberry Pi, which is now more powerful than some early to mid-2000 mid-2000 level computers. All the technological leaps and bounds due to the miniaturization of the transistor have been amazing, but harbor one question: When will the shrinking a transistor stop, and Moore’s Law end? At its current definition, the acceleration of Moore’s Law cannot continue forever. Currently, Moore’s Law is a physical law, it is linked to the size of a silicon atom, therefore we will hit a minimum value for the size of a transistor. As explained previously, FinFETs have allowed scaling of transistors down to 7 nanometers with 5 nanometers still being a theoretical possibility, but that may not work due to electron leakage induced by quantum tunneling. Recently, as of June 2017, IBM announced they had scaled down the transistor to 5 nanometers by reorienting the transistor once again, and were able to fit 30 billion transistors on a chip the size of a fingernail! From the 2D planar to 3D FinFET and now to the GAAFET. The Gate- All-Around Field Effect Transistor, which is sort of a 2D-3D mix, and relies heavily on FinFET design methodologies. The GAAFET essentially adds another transistor compared to FinFETs. Instead of the fin of the source and drain being aligned vertically, GAAFETs align them horizontally using silicon nanosheets, as seen in this photo. Due to these added transistors, devices will become more power and heat efficient once again, up to 40% faster and 75% more efficient, compared to 10 nanometer processors that are just coming to market today. Using silicon nanosheets that will enable 5 nanometer technology. To do this, we developed an entirely new architecture. Today’s chips use what is known as a FinFet architecture and we even use it in our state of the art 7 nanometer chips. But to go beyond 7 nanometers and build new 5 nanometer technology, we use stacks of silicon nanosheets. Here we can see the difference between today’s FinFET architecture and the stacked nanosheets. Instead of three fins side-by-side in which the current flows along the side of the fin, the silicon nanosheets are layered on top of one another and the current flows along the direction of the sheet. It’s clear today 5 nanometer chips are possible, it’s going to happen! The GAAFet is expected to start rolling out to market around 2021 to 2023, and this technology is also theorized to allow scaling down to 3 nanometers, which is now in its research phase and may come to market around the 2024 to 2026 range. At 1 nanometer we reach the smallest a transistor can go if we rely on silicon, at 1 nanometer the source and drain are just 2 silicon atoms across! It is unknown if we can reach this milestone at a commercial level, but some tests do show promise through the use of carbon nanotubes and other design methodologies. Moore’s Law based on the miniaturization the silicon transistor will die around the mid to late-2020s….. Now all those people, articles, videos (even this video) use Moore’s Law being dead as a provocative title. Beyond the miniaturization of the transistor, there are various other aspects of computing to perfect before Moore’s Law even comes close to ending. In fact, it may never end until we reach Planck level technology at 10^-35 meters in size. So, what we will see in the next few years is an uncoupling of Moore’s Law from transistor density and more towards raw computing performance, through multiple design methodologies. Looking at the progression of Moore’s Law in terms of computing performance, over the past 120 years, from Babbage’s analytical engine, we can see that the last seven data points are given by GPU performance not CPU. With some of them NVIDIAs latest cards having over 8 billion transistors, with the Titan X, their latest card, having 12 billion and still using 16 nanometer FinFET architecture! In the next video in this computing series, we’ll expand further on GPUs as computing alternatives, as well as other ways to maximize classical computing architecture from new materials, FPGAs, additional cores and more! In videos afterwards, we’ll discuss various new branches of computing that are currently being developed such as: parallel computing, bio and quantum computers, optical computing, and neuromorphic computing! At this point the video has come to a conclusion. I’d like to thank you for taking the time to watch it, if you enjoyed it please leave a thumbs up and if you want me to elaborate on any of the topics discussed or have any topic suggestions please leave them in the comments below. Consider subscribing to my channel for more content, follow my Medium publication for accompanying blogs and like my Facebook page for more bite-sized chunks of content. This has been Ankur, you’ve been watching Singularity Prosperity and I’ll see you again soon! [Music]

100 thoughts to “The End of Moore’s Law?! (Shrinking The Transistor To 1nm)”

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  2. I think if Intel could make atom sized processor i think they'll call it
    Intel i10 Quantum line the most powerful procosser in the universe

  3. Moore’s law isn’t a law.
    It was an interesting idea. The fact that it has had so much influence on this technology is completely artificial. It’s impossible to say where the industry might be had Gordon Moore not made what is essentially an economic guess.

  4. i am moore. and i say stop. we need to take that rasberry pi and make another giant ass IBM out of a bagillion of them combined, so big it will take 5 grown men to move. and we start re working the matrix of technology that we started from.
    the pyramid is made of stone and contains massive ammounts of natural energy. imagine if we built one where each stone was a mega computer full of sensors. prestiging the tech is the next step says this moore.

  5. Can someone explain to me why they can’t just make a physically larger dogs size increasing the number of transistors without needing to make them any smaller. A 20nm process on a 100cm² die would have a significantly larger number of transistors than current CPUs. Devices requiring continually improved performance can simply increase the die size of current FinFET architectures to add more transistors and devices requiring small size already have enough performance. This problem can be managed in the same way as antibiotics to prevent it from coming to an end before a viable alternative is created. The only exception to this is smartphones which will require increased performance. This can however be achieved in the same way as before by increasing the die size. As smartphones themselves become larger it would be easier to fit a 4cm² 10nm cpu die which would quadruple the performance of the iPhone X than to try and make a 1cm² 5nm one with excessive battery drain from electron leakage.

  6. Forgive my ignorance, but is smaller better just because smaller transistors use less power? Or simply because more can be crammed on a CPU?

  7. "This is about computing, and about modern computing and specifically about Moore's Law," the guy says portentously.
    Honey, Moore's Law is from 1965 — back when transistors came in little round aluminum cans. One can, one transistor. Doesn't get much less modern than that. But otherwise, yeah, sure, you're in good shape to tell us Big Things(tm.) about the Next Development(tm.) of the human race…

  8. not sure what the difference would be with gpu computing. it's all still 0's and 1's. The same shit plaguing cpu with this fuckers laws is going to plague gpu as well.

  9. I got 6 ads in your video that I actually liked. Please watch out I almost left a disliked, but this is a good video, please lower your per video ads

  10. Developers and management need to stop building OSs and software that maxes out the processing power and ram as soon as the hardware is available. Like why is my smartphone and desktop occasionally slow in 2019?

  11. The black projects already use quantum computing. Anything they already have is 30 to 50 yrs ahead of public tech. Using optics will reduce heating and increase spped due lack of resistance. Who knows? They may already have an ambient temp superconductor soon.

  12. Won’t we just learn how to use it more efficiently? For example apple’s specs aren’t really that impressive, but how the hardware and software integrates well.

  13. If it’s gonna “die”, why call it a law? That’s not how natural/scientific law works. Always been bothered by that. It’s obvious there’s a limit.

  14. How come we don't make batteries with the Silicon chip design to make smaller more powerful batteries and compact

  15. I'd like to give some criticism: 1) Please speak with a little more emotion, otherwise the entire video sounds boring and dull. At a lot of moments in the video i considered to click off the video because of that. 2) The subtitle for English are very annoying. Instead of showing 2 new sentences when 2 previous sentences have passed, it tries to imitate a "scrolling" effect by putting a new sentence at the bottom, and sort off pushing the old sentence upward (if you turn on CC you'll know what i mean). And when you are talking very fast like you do, and very monotone, i focus all my attention on the CC instead of the video, and when i try to also concentrate on the video, it's very hard to follow. I don't know how much you can change this, because a lot of youtubers let their community do the CC, but if you can, please fix it.
    Hope this helps.

  16. moores law will not end anytime soon Moores law is not all about the gate getting smaller you could say there is Moore ways to double transistor count other than just shrinking the technology, 3d stacking with layers, also multiple clock cycles and speeds in different parts of the chip could help much like intel multithreading but way more advanced

  17. I can't wrap my head around how they arrange a few individual ATOMS together for each of BILLIONS of transistors on a single chip which you can then buy for as little as $65 commercially

  18. Moore's law is not a "law' it is an observation. I don't see why the end if this observation is such a huge deal to everyone.

  19. Can't we just move on to stressed, twisted crystals to increase speed to 100,000? Or how about using light for circuits instead of electrons? Speed would go from 5ghz to 25ghz without having to use massive coolers.

    Or if there's tunneling at 5nm, then how about some innovation to use the tunneling for logic circuitry.

    All the gloomy talk of the video is depressing.

  20. Holy shit. Are you actually an android?! There are more than three voice tones dude… You clearly have a passion for technology… Just tell your voice that 😂

  21. just remember peeps 1 nm is about 2-5 atoms big … as atoms can be between 0.5-0.2 nm … would like to see an item being smaller than a molocyle that hold multiple atoms together and an item containing multiple molocyles of hose atoms …… unless something smaller than atoms is used .. yes there are things smaller than atoms but still would love to see something like that be made with todays technology

  22. 3 D CPU stacking will continue moore law. Transistor size is only one of many factors that affect performance. Amount of Cache, CPU instruction sets (better algorithmns), Number of Cores, amoung of Ghz all have an impact. 3D stacking can give up to 1 GB or more of CPU cache. That will improve performance by a mile.

  23. Wrong a smartphone is not a computer, it's a state machine it can run apps it can not be programmed to do anything (definition of computer you retarded faget), also more's law doesn't deal with semicondutor, but HOW TO SELL 2 BILLION COMPUTERS A YEAR AND BE PROFITABLE.

  24. When you people will understand that Moore’s Law is not Law…this is business idea created many years ago to organize speed of productions (particularly: speed of processors) . He did not create any law!! or future prediction! He just was thinking how to created line of production (not to fast not to slow) to develop constant line of production…… It has nothing to do with stupid title of this video. Moore created this "low" knowing possibility of technology and prediction to create business flow.

  25. I don't think given how reliant humanity is on computing power at this point and how much Science relies on computers that we really have any choice as a species but to push forward with Quantum computers… We absolutely need to keep maintaining course on moore's law.

  26. I mran if you compair a early 2000 cpu to a 2009 i7 its a world but if you compait a 2009 i7 to a i7 2019… The 2009 can still old on

  27. Why make even smaller processors? 10nm isnt enough? Why dont they make bigger processors with more transistors in it? I know it could make more heat and more power consumption but older processors were quite big and we got along with it.

  28. Hi! I have a stupid question and i'm sorry about that…let's say for example that the largest number of transistors that can be placed in a chip is 1 billion transistor so what thing prevent engeineers to enlarge the chip and place other billions of transistors? Why it's not possible?….i imagine it's because of the heat? I watched a video about superconductivity, it's because of that?

  29. Moores law is both an economic "law", and a "physical law". This video is misleading in that it implies that the development of smaller nodes is still even as economical as it was 10 years ago. Sure there are theoretical ways to print smaller structures, and dreams of averting sub threshold leakage. Yet the whole nature of doping, and circuit connects are dramatically impacted by nodes lower than 5 nm. Dont take my word for it, and dont take this dreamer on faith either, check out Ed Sperling ….. Moores law will end SOON.

  30. Is it really quantum tunneling? Seems random concentration of energy, such as thermal energy would find it easier to push electrons across barriers. The smaller gate structure certainly makes leakage easier but has the dominant cause reach the quantum level?

  31. Intel releasing their 10 nm CPUs in 2018…

    Oh, wait… It's 2019 and no intel 10 nm, but we have AMD 7 nm, so we are fine 🙂

  32. 9:50 THAT'S SMALLER THAN A QUARK, HOW DO WE EVEN BUILD ANYTHING THIS SMALL? THERE'S NOTHING SMALL ENOUGH TO BUILD IT *WITH*

  33. (On the funny side) Are you a robot in human form to have so much information sequencetially bombarded over us to short-circuit our brains to pieces? (On a serious note) This is just mind-blowing information with never-seen-presentation-style which keeps going on and on and there is no chance of skipping any part of the video. Hats-off to you for all the hardwork.

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